Cheap Oil Fails To Ignite Turkey's Growth Prospects

At the start of 2015, the global environment appeared favorable for the Turkish economy. The 50% decline in oil prices between June 2014 and January 2015 presented an opportunity to boost consumer demand and growth while also reducing inflation and the current account deficit. The start of the European Central Bank (ECB)'s large open-ended quantitative easing (QE) program, as well, looked likely t

ARTICLE Economic Research

Falling Oil Prices Are Unlikely To Spur Gulf Sovereign Sukuk Issuance In 2015

Upside for sovereign sukuk issuance in countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council is limited in 2015. Although we expect that lower oil prices will lead to fiscal deficits in some countries in the GCC (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates), most governments' net asset positions will likely remain strong enough to enable their financing.

ARTICLE Financial Institutions

Turkish Banks Face More Regulation And Greater Competition

Turkish banks seem to have got off to a somewhat better start this year than they did in 2014, and the first months of 2015 have been somewhat calmer. In the first quarter of 2014, domestic political tensions led to a highly volatile Turkish lira, which only ended after a sharp rate hike by the Turkish central bank. This, along with regulatory changes on consumer lending and external uncertainties

ARTICLE Insurance

Turkish Property/Casualty Insurance Sector Carries Moderate Industry And Country Risk

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services has assessed industry and country risk for the Turkish property/casualty (P/C) insurance sector as moderate (measured on a scale, from weakest to strongest, of very high risk, high risk, moderate risk, intermediate risk, low risk, and very low risk). Our assessment captures the typical level of risks that P/C insurers operating in Turkey face and reflects our vie

ARTICLE Financial Institutions

Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment: Turkey

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services classifies the banking sector of Turkey (unsolicited; foreign currency BB+/Negative/B, local currency BBB/Negative/A-2) in group '6' (on a 1-10 scale with 1 representing the lowest risk) under its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA). Other countries in group '6' include Bahrain, Guatemala, Spain, and Thailand.

ARTICLE Financial Institutions

Which Emerging Market Banking Systems Could Suffer Most From Fed Tapering?

In December 2013, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would start progressively tapering its $85 billion monthly bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing (QE), judging the U.S. economic recovery to be on track. In this article, we outline our expectations for how the Fed will continue tapering its program throughout 2014.

ARTICLE Financial Institutions

Political And Funding Risks Cloud Prospects For Turkish Banks In 2014

Following a shaky start, Turkish banks face an unsettled year ahead. On the home front, the fallout from the corruption scandal that emerged in December 2013 and rising political uncertainty in the run-up to three successive elections will likely set the tone for the year. Global developments, including repercussions of tapering of the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing and geopolitical un

ARTICLE Governments

Post-Election Credit Implications For Turkey

General elections took place in Turkey on June 7, 2015. The result was a hung parliament. Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 41% of the votes. After the distribution of the "free" seats of the parties that failed to cross the parliamentary threshold, this is equivalent to 258 out of 550 seats, or 18 seats short of a simple majority. This is the first time since 2002 that AKP h

ARTICLE Governments

Ratings On Republic of Turkey Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative

On Nov. 21, 2014, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its unsolicited 'BB+/B' long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Turkey. At the same time, we affirmed our 'BBB/A-2' long- and short-term local currency sovereign credit ratings, and our 'trAAA/trA-1' long- and short-term Turkey national scale ratings. The outlook remains negative.

ARTICLE Economic Research

Economic Research: Turkey: A Case Study In How External Forces Are Shaping Emerging Economies

Emerging economies will continue to face tighter external financial conditions than those prevailing in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. At the same time, they are set to benefit from increased demand for their exports from advanced economies. Turkey's economy remains highly vulnerable to a reversal in foreign capital flows because of its large current account deficit and increasin

ARTICLE Economic Research

Caution Prevails As Rated Turkish Companies Weather Economic And Political Uncertainties

Turkey is once again experiencing political and economic uncertainties. Yet, Turkish blue chip companies have coped successfully with periods like this in the past. The experience has likely equipped Turkey's larger firms to weather the current conditions, including depreciation of the Turkish lira. These firms remain cautious and continue to diversify their operations--both by geography and busin